Commercial Aircraft Market Expected to Reach $260 Billion by 2033

According to a new report published by Allied Market Research, titled, “Commercial Aircraft Market," The commercial aircraft market size was valued at $157.30 billion in 2023, and is estimated to reach $260 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024 to 2033.

A commercial aircraft is a type of airplane designed and used for transporting passengers or cargo on a commercial basis. These aircraft are operated by airlines, cargo carriers, or leasing companies and are built to meet strict safety, efficiency, and regulatory standards. Commercial aircraft are categorized into two main types: passenger aircraft, which carry travelers, and freighter aircraft, which transport goods. They range in size from small regional jets, seating fewer than 100 passengers, to large wide-body planes capable of carrying over 500 passengers or significant cargo loads. Key features include advanced aerodynamics, fuel-efficient engines, and systems for passenger comfort or cargo handling. The commercial aircraft industry is a critical component of global transportation, enabling connectivity, trade, and economic growth.

The commercial aircraft market is experiencing steady growth driven by an increase in air travel demand, fleet expansion, and advancements in fuel-efficient aircraft technologies. Airlines are focusing on modernizing fleets to improve operational efficiency, reduce emissions, and enhance passenger experience.

The growth of online shopping and increase in demand for fast delivery have prompted logistics companies and airlines to expand their cargo fleets. For instance, in November 2024, Etihad Airways increased its A350 freighter order to 10 aircraft in response to rising e-commerce demand. The airline exercised an option for three additional Airbus A350 next-generation freighters, bringing its total order to 10, as confirmed by Stanislas Brun, Vice President of Cargo, in an interview with FreightWaves.

Etihad initially committed to seven A350 freighters in 2022 but is expanding its fleet to handle the growing volume of e-commerce shipments, particularly from Asia to global markets.

Moreover, the growth of low-cost carriers (LCCs) is driving demand for medium-sized aircraft, as these airlines expand their networks and increase flight frequencies to meet rising passenger demand. For instance, in December 2024, Tata Group-owned Air India announced an order for 100 additional Airbus aircraft, including 10 wide-body A350s and 90 narrow-body A320 Family aircraft, such as the A321neo. This order adds to the 470 aircraft Air India had previously ordered from Airbus and Boeing in 2023, increasing the total Airbus aircraft orders in 2023 from 250 to 350, consisting of 40 A350s and 310 A320 Family aircraft. Such developments further contribute to the growth of the commercial aircraft market share, particularly in the narrow-body aircraft segment, which continues to dominate due to its cost efficiency and operational flexibility for both full-service and low-cost carriers.

The commercial aircraft market is expected to witness growth globally due to the rise in air passenger traffic, increase in aircraft orders from developing countries, and the expansion of low-cost carriers and the tourism industry. However, supply chain disruptions, aircraft delivery delays, and stringent regulatory and safety standards may hinder market growth during the forecast period. On the other hand, advancements in electric and hybrid aircraft and the expansion of e-commerce and air cargo operations are expected to create new growth opportunities for the industry.

Airline executives are increasingly prioritizing fuel-efficient and next-generation aircraft to optimize costs and comply with strict environmental regulations. Fleet renewal programs are accelerating, with carriers placing large orders for models like the Airbus A321XLR, Boeing 737 MAX, and new-generation wide-body aircraft. The growing influence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) is further shaping market trends, as airlines seek versatile aircraft that maximize revenue potential while maintaining operational flexibility.

In 2024, Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft to 86 customers worldwide and secured 878 gross new orders. By the end of the year, its order backlog reached 8,658 aircraft. Christian Scherer, CEO of Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, highlighted the strong demand for new aircraft, major customer wins, and significant growth in widebody orders, reinforcing Airbus’s leadership in the single-aisle market. Key milestones included the first-ever A321XLR delivery and the first A330neo and A350 deliveries to multiple global customers. These developments reflect key commercial aircraft market trends, including the rising demand for fuel-efficient aircraft, the continued expansion of narrow-body fleets for short- and medium-haul routes, and the resurgence of long-haul travel.

Moreover, the expansion of low-cost carriers (LCCs) and the growth of the tourism industry are significant drivers of the commercial aircraft market. The rise in middle-class disposable incomes, coupled with increased leisure time and a preference for travel experiences, has fueled a steady increase in both domestic and international tourism. This trend has created strong demand for affordable air travel, making LCCs an essential part of the aviation sector. As highlighted in the commercial aircraft market report analysis, fleet modernization, airport infrastructure development, and government initiatives to boost tourism are further shaping market growth.

There is an inherent demand for diverse travel routes, including both popular tourist destinations and emerging markets with the expansion of tourism. Low-cost carriers may introduce and optimize routes that align with evolving tourist preferences. For instance, in November 2023, VietJet Air launched its fifth online station in India, connecting Trichy (TRZ) to Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) with three weekly flights. This new route facilitates connections for passengers to various destinations, including Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia. Therefore, the high volume of travelers opting for budget-friendly air travel contributes to the financial viability of LCCs, which expands their market share. As more passengers choose budget-friendly flights, LCCs continue to expand their fleet size and operational reach, further driving aircraft demand. Consequently, the combination of rising tourism and the increasing prominence of LCCs contributes significantly to the commercial aircraft market growth.

The commercial aircraft market is segmented into aircraft type, size, application, and region. On the basis of aircraft type, the market is divided into narrow-body, wide-body, regional & business jets, and freighters. As per size, the market is categorized into small aircraft, medium aircraft, and large aircraft. On the basis of application, the market is bifurcated into passenger and cargo. Region-wise, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

In addition, the market is highly competitive, with several key players dominating the industry. Leading manufacturers focus on innovation, product differentiation, and strategic partnerships to maintain their market positions. Major market players include companies such as Boeing, Airbus, COMAC, Embraer, Lockheed Martin, ATR, Bombardier, Textron, PJSC Yakovlev, and Leonardo S.p.A.

KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

• By aircraft type, the narrow body segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the commercial aircraft market in the near future.
• According to size, the small aircraft segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the commercial aircraft market in the near future.
• By application, the cargo segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the commercial aircraft market in the near future.